#ETH走势分析 Ethereum hourly chart in crisis: short positions take the initiative

$ETH has formed a clear downward channel on the hourly chart, and the current market rhythm is dominated by short positions. Two key price levels will determine the subsequent trend, and traders need to pay close attention.

Core price range
Resistance above: 2946.63 (30-day moving average position)
This position is the ceiling that has rebounded multiple times recently. Whenever the price approaches, sell orders will surge.

Support below: 2805.55
This is the last line of defense for the bulls. If it breaks down with volume, the next target may be in the 2721 area at the lower edge of the Bollinger Bands.

The current price is hovering around 2840, and the 7-day exponential moving average at 2843 has become a window for observing short-term strength and weakness.

Technical Structure Interpretation
The moving averages are in a short position arrangement. The MA30 is hovering at 2946, putting pressure on the price, while the MA7 is forming short-term resistance. This configuration usually indicates heavy positions trapped, and there is considerable resistance to rebound.

The MACD indicator continues to weaken. The green bars are elongated (DIF value -46.47), and both the fast and slow lines are operating below the zero line, indicating that short positions are still being released.

The Bollinger Bands are expanding downward overall. The middle band at 2911 has turned into resistance, and the price is running close to the lower band. Once the support at 2805 fails, the downside potential will further open up.

Tip: When the 30-day moving average and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands both form resistance at the same time, it often indicates that the trend will continue.

Market Environment Observation
Currently, there are no obvious positive catalysts, and the willingness of new funds to enter the market is not strong. On-chain data does not show signs of large holders bottoming out.

Be cautious of the volatility during US stock trading hours or sudden regulatory news, as this may trigger a chain reaction of leverage.

Trading reference ideas
Short-term trading: Consider gradually reducing positions as the rebound approaches the 2940 resistance zone. A stop-loss must be executed if it falls below 2805.

Medium-term layout: Wait for the daily level to show stabilization signals before considering right-side entry, which is safer.

Key observation periods: tonight's US trading session and the Asian capital flow at 8 AM tomorrow.