#ETH走势分析 Today’s wave of fall, many people may have misjudged.

Rumors in the country and certain resignation news are actually smokescreens; the real epicenter is in Tokyo - the Bank of Japan has just hinted that it may play the interest rate hike card. Does this sound far from us? Wrong, it has a significant impact.

In the past decade, the Japanese yen has been the "best money to borrow" globally, with interest rates absurdly low. A large amount of capital has been borrowed in yen to invest in high-yield assets, with Bitcoin being one of the popular targets. Now that borrowing costs are set to rise, these arbitrage positions need to hurriedly close and repay—selling coins for yen, which puts instant pressure on the market. Cryptocurrencies are the most sensitive to capital flow, and they naturally fall faster.

In simple terms, this is a fundamental shift in the global liquidity environment. A central bank that has been "flooding" the market for a long time is starting to "tighten." In the short term, the market will be watching whether the Federal Reserve can intervene to hedge against this, but this situation is full of uncertainties.

So don't keep thinking about bottom fishing for doubling your investment. In this macro environment, blindly guessing the rise and fall can easily lead to losses. The key is to manage your position well and ensure the safety of your capital. Only when the global liquidity situation stabilizes will real opportunities emerge.

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