The recent big dump of BTC, that extreme Long Wick Candle in the morning session was really brutal. It seems now that a second bottom test or directly breaking new lows is both possible.

I told everyone yesterday that this round of rebound would peak around 92000, followed by a deep correction. At that time, I expected a minimum of 87000, but it dropped directly to 85500, a decline of 6500 points—more brutal than I anticipated. However, the overall trend is quite close to my expectations. After such a dump, the bulls basically have no chance in the short term, and 93000 might be the ceiling during this period. As for 98000 and 100000? Don't even think about it in the short term.

Some people in the market are blaming Japan's interest rate hike, while others say that regulation has tightened in certain areas. I think these explanations are purely nonsense. If it were really sudden news that caused this, why are we able to predict in advance that this position would fall through technical analysis? To put it bluntly, whether those news exist or not, it will still fall. Many people just need a reason to comfort themselves or, you could say, to self-hypnotize.

This time, the bullish fantasies have been completely extinguished. The current rebound is just a technical rebound; after it bounces, it will continue to go down. If it breaks below 85000, the next target will be 80000, and we will see if a double bottom support can be formed there. If even a double bottom cannot be formed, then 70000 is also not impossible.

So the point I have been emphasizing: don't blindly catch the bottom, and don't follow the trend to chase orders. Doing intraday trading and securing profits daily is the right way. Follow the funds when they enter, and withdraw when they leave. Never jump into catching the bottom just because of hearsay, ending up being trapped for three years and waiting another three years to break even— or it may even be impossible to recover.