#美联储恢复降息进程 Fed internal "infighting"? This time it's different - the debate between doves and hawks is brought directly to the forefront, with a level of openness much higher than in previous years.

Why is this happening? To put it simply, it's a clash of data. Inflation isn't dropping as quickly, but the job market is holding up well, which has led to differing judgments on risk among decision-makers. More crucially, interest rates are already close to neutral levels. Continue to lower them? The marginal returns are diminishing while the side effects are accumulating. This forces every decision-maker to be more cautious.

What is the market worried about? To put it bluntly, it is afraid that the Fed's policies will be led by short-term pressures—whether political pressure or market sentiment. However, from this divergence, those regional Fed chairmen opposing interest rate cuts seem to have a stance more akin to traditional "inflation hawks". Those supporting interest rate cuts are more concerned about employment risks. Currently, there are no obvious signs of political interference.

The current situation of the Fed is a bit like a tightrope walker: on the left is the internal disagreement over the assessment of economic risks, on the right is the market's urgent expectation for policy direction, and beneath it all, there is the need to balance the two long-term goals of independence and credibility. Can Powell walk steadily on this tightrope? We shall see.