Nvidia's Earnings Beat Is Just a Sideshow—Here's What Really Matters for AI

Nvidia just dropped a 62% revenue growth bomb: $57B in Q3, crushing expectations and sending the stock up 6% (+$300B market cap). CEO Jensen Huang rolled his eyes at AI bubble talk during earnings, and investors celebrated like the sequel was better than the original.

But here’s the thing: focusing on Nvidia to gauge AI momentum is like watching the GPU factory instead of what’s actually being built with those GPUs.

The Rail vs. The Train Problem

Nvidia is the pick-and-shovel play—incredible, essential, and probably still growing. Q4 guidance of $65B revenue (65% growth YoY) proves it. But the company is building infrastructure. The real question isn’t whether Nvidia will keep crushing it; it’s whether anyone’s actually using AI profitably.

That’s where OpenAI and Anthropic come in. Unlike Nvidia, these are consumption plays—they’re running the actual AI apps. And their numbers? Compelling.

The Numbers That Matter

OpenAI: $500B valuation, but running at a $20B revenue rate right now. Tripling revenue this year alone. Sam Altman’s talking $100B by 2027. For context, SaaS companies typically trade at 25-30x sales; OpenAI is closer to 25x on current burn rates.

Anthropic: $350B valuation, aiming for $20-26B run-rate revenue by end of 2026. Already north of $9B annualized.

These aren’t just “growing faster than Nvidia.” They’re the actual proof that AI adoption is real and profitable, not just hype.

The Shift That’s Coming

Nvidia’s strength confirms the virtuous cycle Huang described: more compute demand → more GPUs shipped → more AI inference → more software adoption → more demand for GPUs.

But watch Palantir (now a $400B AI software play), OpenAI, and Anthropic. If valuations on these start looking stretched—if growth can’t justify the hype—that’s when you worry about the bubble.

Right now? Doubling and tripling revenue every year makes even $500B look reasonable.

TL;DR: Nvidia beat, but it’s the AI software companies’ metrics you should be obsessing over. As long as OpenAI and Anthropic keep printing growth, the AI boom has legs.