# BTC hasn't bounced back this year, but that doesn't mean it's time to sell.

With less than 50 days left in 2025, BTC has instead lost 6%. Originally, there were favorable conditions from the new government and institutions buying in aggressively as catalysts, but it still broke the $100,000 mark. It really hurts.

**Short-term player? Give up BTC and buy gold instead**

Spot gold has risen by 55% this year, while BTC has fallen by 6%. If BTC is truly "digital gold", how can one rise while the other falls? If the logic doesn’t add up, don’t force it; simply allocate to a gold ETF instead.

**But long-term investors don't need to panic**

BTC has only had 3 years of losses since 2010, with all other years showing double-digit or even triple-digit gains. This asset operates on a 4-year cycle—after a surge, it experiences a significant drop. In 2023, it rose by 157%, and in 2024, it rose by 125%; now it’s time for the "recession year."

Take a look at history and you'll understand: the three major declines in 2014, 2018, and 2022 occurred exactly four years apart, and this is not a coincidence.

**JPMorgan is also optimistic about BTC reaching $170,000** (in the next 12 months), with steady institutional buying, and the White House has not given up on the "Bitcoin superpower" plan.

**The key is the holding period**

Wood from Ark is right: you should hold for at least 5 years. If you can't hold for 5 years, you are likely to panic sell during short-term dips. So the question is not whether you should buy now, but whether you can stay with it through the "low valley years".

BTC is the strongest asset in the world 80% of the time, but these cyclical fluctuations can be frightening.