Spot BTC Insights 20251202 00:00 UTC

TLDR
Bitcoin has seen significant volatility, dropping over 3% in 24 hours, driven by macro shifts and market structure adjustments, to begin with.
1. Macroeconomic shifts, including Fed's QT end and Yen Carry Trade unwinding, are driving BTC.
2. High leverage led to liquidations, with institutional ETF outflows adding selling pressure.
3. Oversold RSI and turning MACD suggest a potential shortterm relief rally for BTC.
Positives
1. Macroeconomic shift: The Federal Reserve officially concluded its quantitative tightening program on December 1, 2025, potentially creating a more favorable liquidity environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.
2. Institutional resilience: Despite recent market drawdowns, Bitcoin treasury models are described as "bruised but not broken," indicating underlying strength and growing institutional interest in maturing BTC as an asset class.
3. Potential rebound signals: Technical indicators show extremely oversold RSI levels (6, 12, 24) ranging from 5.5 to 31.8, and the MACD histogram is turning positive, suggesting a potential shortterm relief rally from current price levels.
Risks
1. Macroeconomic headwind: The potential unwinding of the Japanese Yen Carry Trade, driven by anticipated Bank of Japan rate hikes, is tightening global liquidity and causing significant selloffs in risk assets like BTC.
2. Market fragility & liquidations: Over $640 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated following a sharp price drop, indicating high market leverage and susceptibility to sudden, cascading selloffs.
3. Institutional outflows: US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $3.48 billion in net outflows in November, the largest monthly withdrawal since February, signaling reduced institutional buying demand and persistent selling pressure.
Community Sentiment
#DecemberMarketOutlook
$BTC ‌