Last night, the US November ISM Manufacturing Index was released, and the score of 48.2 has once again put the market on edge.

This number is not only below the market expectation of 49, but the more exaggerated fact is that this is the 9th consecutive month that the manufacturing index has stayed below the 50 threshold. What does that mean? It indicates that the U.S. manufacturing sector continues to be sluggish, and there are clear signs that the economic engine is losing steam.

What does this data mean for the market? Let me briefly break down the impact logic on the Federal Reserve and BTC.

**Let's first talk about the Federal Reserve.**

The manufacturing sector has contracted for nine consecutive months, and this persistent weakness can no longer be explained as "short-term fluctuations." The signals of economic slowdown are becoming increasingly clear, and the Federal Reserve may have to seriously consider "preemptive rate cuts"—that is, cutting rates in advance to provide a lifeline before the economy completely falters.

So the expectation of an interest rate cut in December is now basically set in stone and the heat is rising.

**Let's take another look at BTC.**

With the expectation of interest rate cuts heating up, the US dollar and Treasury yields typically weaken, while BTC naturally moves in the opposite direction of the dollar. In fact, the recent surge in BTC has, to some extent, already priced in the expectations of rate cuts, and now this data is essentially giving the market another shot of adrenaline.

In simple terms, this failing manufacturing report is quietly rewriting the market's directional indicators. Investors' attention may be shifting from "how stubborn is inflation really" to "will the economy truly not hold up"—this shift in expectations is often more intriguing than the data itself.