All eyes are on this crucial moment in December. Will Bitcoin break through the 100,000 mark, or will it fall back to 80,000? The answer may lie in the policy signals that the Fed is about to release.

The timing is very delicate. The Fed has officially ended its quantitative tightening operations, and the valve of market liquidity is no longer tightening. More importantly, the market is waiting for an answer: Will interest rates be cut in December? The price of Bitcoin is already deeply tied to interest rate expectations—easing policies may drive it up, while hawkish statements will test the support level of 80,000.

Currently, Bitcoin is barely holding above 85,000. This price level looks okay, but let's not forget what just happened — that round of $19 billion in liquidations caused many to completely exit the market. The only thing that provides some relief is that BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) has returned to a cumulative profit status of $3.2 billion, recording net inflows on Wednesday, which is seen as a certain indicator of market sentiment.

However, differences still exist.

Some analysts have quietly lowered their expectations. On the other hand, some have dug up historical data and found a pattern of "rising on Wednesdays." But the risk warning is also clear: if Bitcoin cannot quickly rise above 95,000, it may fall back to the 80,000 range, repeating the scene of a single-day drop of over 10,000.

It's not just Bitcoin that is fluctuating. Zcash soared by 1000% in a single day due to ETF-related news, and the frenzy of niche coins continues. At the same time, security risks have not calmed down - the South Korean trading platform Upbit has just experienced a $36 million theft incident.

The answer for December is about to be revealed: can liquidity easing really deliver? What signals will the policy level give? Is Bitcoin surging towards 100,000, or will it fall below 80,000?

Half looking forward, half vigilant. This month, the heartbeat pattern has already started.