What impact does this upgrade of Ethereum have on the price? Let's pump a timeline and discuss.

**Don't expect a huge surge in the short term (within one month after launch)**

It is highly likely to follow the old routine of "good news being fully priced in before a drop," or simply move sideways. A glance at history reveals this – during Ethereum's previous major events (the Beijing upgrade, the London upgrade, the Shanghai upgrade, the Dencun upgrade), the rhythm on the launch day or the two days prior was basically "expectations were fully priced in and then pulled out." This time, Fusaka has already been speculated in the market for two months, and at the price range of 2700 to 2800 dollars, to be honest, a part of the good news has already been priced in.

The real trouble lies with the EIP-7002 and 7251 proposals — they could release a potential selling pressure of about 500,000 to 800,000 ETH (although there are gradual exit mechanisms to limit this, the market tends to panic in advance). On top of that, those institutions and large holders will most likely cash out before and after the upgrade; didn't MicroStrategy reduce its holdings before the last Dencun upgrade?

**However, in the medium to long term, this matter is completely different (from Q1 to Q2 of 2025)**

The real price surge relies not on the upgrade itself, but on the "explosion in usage" that comes after the upgrade. Think about it:

If the single transaction fee for Layer 2 can truly drop to the level of 0.001 to 0.01 USD (which has already decreased by 90%), user adoption and transaction volume will definitely explode. After the launch of Dencun in March last year, the total locked value of L2 quadrupled, and this time it will be even more intense.

Account abstraction (EIP-7702) will make using MetaMask as simple as using Alipay for ordinary people, lowering the threshold to the floor price. The tipping point for mainstream adoption may be just around the corner.

There are also tokenized real assets (RWA) – traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton need the combination of low fees on L2 and account abstraction. JPMorgan predicts that by 2025, there will be $10 to $30 trillion of traditional assets on-chain. Once this level of volume enters, the entire ecosystem will have to be reshuffled.

More importantly, the destruction mechanism will be reactivated: the lower the L2 fees → the higher the usage → the base fee will instead increase → the amount of destruction will once again exceed the amount of issuance. The concept of "ultrasound money" may be back.

**Summarize the timeline**

From December 1st to 5th (the days before and after the upgrade): it is highly likely to see a pullback or consolidation, with a drop to between 2400 to 2600 USD being a normal operation, so don't panic, this is just a washout.

Mid-December to March next year: Once L2 fees really drop to the point of "feeling free", RWA projects are launched in batches, and the data is burned to become positive, ETH will likely start a new wave of bull market. First looking at $4000, then aiming for $5000 to $8000.

This upgrade won't cause ETH to skyrocket tomorrow, but it could very well be the real starting point for a rise from 2700 to over 7000 in 2025. The short-term "sell the news" isn't scary; rather, it's an opportunity to get in. The real danger is if it doesn't rise three months after the upgrade, that would indicate the upgrade has failed (the probability of that should be less than 10%).