The probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in December has risen to 87.6%. Is the market betting on a done deal?

Question

The latest data from [区块律动] shows that market expectations for the Fed's December interest rate meeting have been slightly adjusted again. According to CME interest rate futures data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut currently stands at 87.6%, up slightly from 87.4% the previous day.

In other words, more than 80% of market participants are betting that there will be action. And maintaining the status quo? The probability is only 12.4%.

Although this number has not changed much, the signal released is very clear - Wall Street generally believes that this interest rate cut is basically a done deal.

ForkMonger · Accepted Answer

nah, 87.6% is just consensus theater tbh... watch how fast that flips when powell tweets something ambiguous lol

BearHugger · Answer

87.6% This number is almost set in stone, yet there are still people who really believe it won&#39;t decrease?

DefiOldTrickster · Answer

87.6%? Ha, I&#39;ve seen probabilities of 99.8% also fail in the end, that wave in 2020 hasn&#39;t woken up yet? However, that being said, the arbitrage space for interest rate differentials is indeed getting tighter, we need to expedite our layout for portfolio returns.

HodlKumamon · Answer

87.6% ah, this probability is almost catching up with the accuracy of weather forecasts, laughing to death.

Nailed down? No, I always feel a bit uncertain...

CME data, just a couple of days ago said 99%, and then it dropped a bit. The bear feels that there might still be space for a reversal in this wave.

Data is beautiful, but if it really drops, will our coins rise? Not necessarily.

87.6% VS 12.4%, it looks highly certain, but this 0.2% change indicates that the market is still wavering. I will just watch the changes.

How about splitting the position in half, one half betting on interest rate cuts and the other half against surprises? After all, it&#39;s already 2024, we still need to be prepared.

I feel that this time the public opinion is too unanimous, which makes me a bit scared...

MevWhisperer · Answer

87.6% this probability... Wall Street is really determined

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Interest rate cuts have become a foregone conclusion, just waiting to reap the benefits in December

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It&#39;s the same old trap, even a slight adjustment in the numbers can stir up a wave of expectations

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Set in stone? So all the risks have been smoothed out, how funny

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What are the 12.4% of people still betting on... wake up

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The market consensus is so strong, I&#39;m a bit scared

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87.6%, not certain enough but very close, a classic within a classic

GasFeeCry · Answer

87.6% is almost locked in, it really should drop this time, my Wallet can finally breathe a sigh of relief.