#数字货币市场回调 has recently set its sights on a highly valued new project - PIEVERSE, backed by both AI and GameFi concepts, but I feel that the hype is too heavy.

First, let's discuss the basic situation. This project just launched its spot and contract trading on several leading exchanges and a compliant platform in mid-November, with the current price at $0.3538. The fully diluted valuation has soared to $355 million. The circulating supply is only 17.5%, which is a typical low circulation and high control strategy—$10 million in financing, led by major institutions like Animoca Brands, with investors and the team controlling a total of 35% of the tokens. The key point is that the 12-month lock-up period will expire in November next year, at which time 350 million tokens will be released, creating a selling pressure worth $35 million based on the current price.

Fundamentals? To be honest, it's quite hollow. It claims to be a TimeFi platform on the BNB chain, doing some AI-driven Web3 event calendars and on-chain challenges, but if you check the TVL data—zero. Ecological development progress? Also zero. DeFi integration? None. User growth? Not visible. In the GameFi and AI sectors, it faces competition from mature projects like Axie, so where's the advantage?

Looking at the technical side again. Multiple timeframes are releasing bearish signals: the 1-hour RSI is still at 55, which is considered neutral, but the 4-hour has dropped to 44, and the daily RSI at 63 is close to the overbought zone, showing a clear bearish divergence. The MACD at the 4-hour level is -25, and the lower Bollinger Band is repeatedly testing around 0.321. The perpetual contract data is even more interesting—open interest is $18.9 million, having increased by 5.2% in the last 24 hours, indicating new short positions are entering. The funding rate is negative (a certain leading exchange at -0.016%), meaning shorts have to pay longs, but this actually favors the continuation of the shorting logic.

The movements of whales are also worth noting. In the past week, $1.87 million flowed out, suspected to be large holders transferring chips to centralized exchanges in preparation for selling. Liquidation data shows that long positions were liquidated for $216,000, while shorts only amounted to $138,000. The dominance of longs indicates that there is still liquidation space. Currently, the support level is at $0.321, and the resistance is at $0.347. If the market continues to decline, it will amplify the chain reaction of liquidations.

The emotional sentiment on the social level is relatively cold. Discussions on Twitter are more focused on negative topics such as VC fundraising and lack of practical use cases, and several influential KOLs do not have a strong bullish voice. FUD mainly revolves around unlocking pressure and conceptual speculation. The fear index is 24, and the level of interaction is also low.

My short selling strategy is as follows:
The entry point is near the current price of 0.354 USD (the position where it rebounded to the middle track in four hours). The first target is 0.321 USD, which is about a 9% drop, allowing for partial profit taking; the second target looks at 0.300 USD, with a 15% gain. The stop loss is set at 0.370 USD, which is a 5% position upward. The risk-reward ratio is 3:1, and based on historical data, the win rate can reach around 70%. The holding period is 1 to 3 weeks, with position control at 1.5% of the account, as it is a bear market environment, so being conservative is better.

Of course, this is just a personal opinion, DYOR. $PIEVERSE