#数字资产市场观察 The Fed chair transition is imminent, which may bring unexpected twists to the digital asset market.

The candidates for the position after the current chairman's term ends in 2026 have already begun to take shape. According to market forecast data, Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, has emerged as a leading candidate with a 57% probability of winning. This number far exceeds that of other competitors, and his policy inclinations are drawing close attention from the cryptocurrency sector.

Let's first take a look at the background of this potential new leader. Hassett's career spans academia and government - he has served as an economist for the Fed, an advisor to the Treasury Department, and has also been a professor at Columbia University. Currently, as a key member of the White House economic decision-making team, he is leading the operations of the digital asset working group.

It is even more noteworthy that he publicly stated his opposition to one-size-fits-all restrictions on blockchain technology, even defining it as "the next generation of internet infrastructure." Such statements are quite rare among traditional central bank officials.

From the perspective of monetary policy stance, Hassett belongs to the clearly accommodative camp. He has repeatedly criticized the current interest rate levels for their suppressive effect on economic growth, advocating for a faster pace of interest rate cuts. For liquidity-dependent digital assets, this policy direction signifies a potential improvement in the market environment.

Another characteristic of him is that he does not blindly adhere to the dogma of traditional central bank independence. In his view, monetary policy should prioritize serving the development of the real economy, rather than strictly adhering to academic theoretical frameworks. This pragmatic approach aligns closely with certain political demands.

If personnel changes become a reality, it may bring about changes on two levels: first, the reconstruction of the liquidity environment, where loose policies may accelerate; second, the adjustment of the regulatory framework, which may provide more policy space for the dollar settlement channel of digital assets.

However, the market needs to remain rational. The Fed adopts a committee decision-making mechanism, making it difficult for a single chairperson to fully dominate the direction. The Senate hearings are also an important test, as specific political labels may trigger resistance. In addition, if inflation data rises again, any easing plans will face real constraints.

Ultimately, personal factors are just one of the variables. The long-term trend of $BTC ultimately depends on the macroeconomic cycle and the progress of technological applications.