SOL technical analysis shows conflicting signals: Oversold Rebound or continued downward movement?

[币界] has been watching the 4-hour chart of SOL for several days, and the recent trend is quite interesting.

From midnight on December 1st to noon, in these 12 hours, the price first climbed up from the low point, and at noon there was a large bullish candlestick, leading us to believe it was about to take off. However, in the last 4 hours, it started to decline again, and the current position is even lower than it was at noon on the 30th. More critically, trading volume is shrinking, with both price and volume weakening, which is a typical market wait-and-see state, where neither bulls nor bears dare to act rashly.

The technical signals are quite contradictory. Although the MACD histogram is still below the zero line, the negative values are gradually narrowing, indicating that the bearish strength is weakening, and there are signs of a bullish reversal. However, the KDJ is currently at only 6, which is deeply oversold, theoretically suggesting a possible rebound at any time. The RSI has also fallen below 30; based on experience, such extreme overselling often signals a short-term rebound—of course, this is assuming that the larger trend has not collapsed.

Talk about the specific location. The recent range is very obvious, with a high of 143.77 and a low of 123.86, and the current price is oscillating in the lower middle section. If you want to bet on a rebound, you can consider building a position in batches around 120.33. If you are more aggressive, you can also try around 123.25, with a stop loss set below 123.24. The upper target is first looking at the previous high resistance level of 143. If it can break through, you can reduce your position around 145.9.

Support and resistance are also very clear: the recent support level is 123 below, and if it goes lower, we look at 120; the clear resistance above is 143, and whether it can break through here in the short term is key.

Currently, with this divergence between volume and price plus the oversold condition, I personally tend to wait for a clearer signal before taking action, so don't rush to catch the bottom. After all, even though the RSI is oversold, until the trend reverses, catching the bottom is like catching a falling knife.