#数字货币市场回调 In the morning session, BTC fell below 83000. Do you think this is just a technical pullback? I took a look at the data, and there may be greater troubles behind it.

The market is now frantically betting on one thing: the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has surged to 80%, and in January it is approaching 90%. Does it sound far away? Wrong. This is directly related to the global $19 trillion yen carry trade—a massive pool of funds accumulated over decades.

The method is very simple: borrow yen at ultra-low interest rates, convert it to US dollars, and invest it in US stocks and the crypto space. Now that Japan is tightening? Then this money has to be pulled out, and it will be a swift withdrawal. Guess who will suffer first? That's right, BTC will be the first to bear the brunt.

The data is there: a single month saw a fall of over 20%, with a net outflow of $3.5 billion from ETFs, and more than 400 million contracts exploded in one night. What's worse is the timing—December 19th is just before Christmas, when market liquidity is already poor. Do you remember the disaster in December 2022? At that time, the Bank of Japan suddenly raised the yield cap on 10-year government bonds from 0.25% to 0.5%, and the global market was left stunned. Will this script be replayed now?

The Federal Reserve is also not at ease. Powell says nothing tonight, which makes people even more uncertain—silent periods are often a precursor to a storm. If Japan tightens and the U.S. doesn't ease, BTC may face a double whammy.

Take a calm look: the carry trade liquidation did indeed crash the market, but it's not the end of the world. After Japan's last rate hike in 2024, BTC reached a new high within three months. The key is to watch the nodes - how the Bank of Japan's meeting in December will go, and how the Federal Reserve's dot plot will be drawn.

Don't rush to go all in, and don't be scared to run away completely. Control your position; staying alive is key to catching the next wave.

Now let me ask you a question: at this position, do you dare to take it?