The financial market in December resembles the surface of the sea before a storm – calm on the surface, but turbulent underneath. Everyone is watching one date: December 9-10.

**The market has pressed the 'confirm button'**

CME data doesn’t lie: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut surged to 86.4%. Zacks investment manager Brian Mulberry put it bluntly: "An 80% chance is basically a done deal." With the Thanksgiving holiday shortening trading days, U.S. stocks are still strong, led by tech stocks, with Intel soaring 10% in a single day, setting a nine-month record.

The market votes with real money, and does not intend to wait for an official announcement.

**The US dollar is losing ground**

The US dollar index fell below the 99.6 mark, with a cumulative decline of 0.61% this week, marking the worst week since July. Deutsche Bank reviewed the reasons: weak retail data, delayed CPI report, and declining consumer confidence - a triple blow that solidified the market's expectations for easing.

Money begins to flow into risk assets. Gold is soaring to $4200, silver has jumped nearly 5% to around $56, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index is also taking off. The sensitivity of capital is more acute than any announcement.

**The Most Awkward Decision Window in History**

This interest rate meeting has a rare bug: the October CPI report has been canceled, and the November data will be released only on December 18 - which means the Federal Reserve will have to make decisions without seeing the latest inflation data.

It's like driving with your eyes closed. The policy uncertainty is at its peak, but the market has already made a choice for the central bank.

**Risk appetite is fully unleashed**

Investors are no longer pretending. Tech stocks, Chinese concept stocks, and precious metals are all advancing together. Analysts' judgments are clear: "The model has switched, and now risk appetite is dominant." Xpeng, JD, and NIO collectively surged, and gold and silver reached new highs, with capital voting with its feet.

**Central banks around the world are playing the same game**

The Federal Reserve is not fighting alone. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Japan are all shifting towards easing. ING economist James Knightley sums it up well: "Global coordinated easing is already on the way."

The quiet period has arrived, and all eyes are on December 9-10. This meeting is not just about interest rate adjustments; it is also a preview of the policy path for 2026.

The countdown to the storm has begun.