The big dump early yesterday morning was most likely triggered by the potential interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan. As for the domestic policy crackdown, I actually think its impact on the market is not as significant as the interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
Let's popularize why we should pay attention to whether the Bank of Japan raises interest rates in December. The Japanese yen is actually an important "supplier" of global dollar liquidity. A lot of funds are borrowed in yen at low interest rates, then converted into dollars to invest in markets with higher returns; this is a typical carry trade. However, if Japan raises interest rates, these arbitrage positions will have to be forcibly closed, and liquidity will be rapidly withdrawn. Many people may not realize the importance of Japan's interest rates in their daily lives, thinking that global liquidity mainly depends on the Federal Reserve. However, Japan's ultra-low interest rates are one of the "faucets" for global funds. Once they raise interest rates, the faucet is turned down, and global markets have to tighten accordingly. On March 19, 2024, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, causing the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market bull run to come to an abrupt halt. On July 31, 2024, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates again, and Bitcoin fell from 62,000 to 49,000. Therefore, closely monitor the actions of the Bank of Japan in December.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
The big dump early yesterday morning was most likely triggered by the potential interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan. As for the domestic policy crackdown, I actually think its impact on the market is not as significant as the interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
Let's popularize why we should pay attention to whether the Bank of Japan raises interest rates in December.
The Japanese yen is actually an important "supplier" of global dollar liquidity. A lot of funds are borrowed in yen at low interest rates, then converted into dollars to invest in markets with higher returns; this is a typical carry trade. However, if Japan raises interest rates, these arbitrage positions will have to be forcibly closed, and liquidity will be rapidly withdrawn.
Many people may not realize the importance of Japan's interest rates in their daily lives, thinking that global liquidity mainly depends on the Federal Reserve. However, Japan's ultra-low interest rates are one of the "faucets" for global funds. Once they raise interest rates, the faucet is turned down, and global markets have to tighten accordingly.
On March 19, 2024, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, causing the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market bull run to come to an abrupt halt. On July 31, 2024, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates again, and Bitcoin fell from 62,000 to 49,000. Therefore, closely monitor the actions of the Bank of Japan in December.