#数字货币市场回调 Bitcoin fell sharply from $90,000 to $85,000, and many people thought it was a sudden regulatory policy attack — in fact, those routine statements had already been digested by the market, and the real trigger was on the other side of the Pacific.

The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has surpassed 1.1%. This figure may sound insignificant, but it is the highest point since the 2008 financial crisis. It is important to note that there has been an open secret in the global financial markets over the past decade: the Bank of Japan is the largest "free ATM".

The mechanism is as follows: institutions borrow yen at nearly zero cost, convert it to dollars, and then invest in high-yield assets: U.S. Treasury bonds for interest spreads, technology stocks for growth, and cryptocurrencies for Beta returns. This "yen arbitrage trading" strategy supports the liquidity of a large amount of risk assets, and the crypto market is naturally one of the beneficiaries.

Now the script has turned. Inflation continues in Japan, and the market generally expects the central bank to raise interest rates in December. The rising cost of borrowing is one thing, but the more serious issue is the expectation of yen appreciation—institutions not only have to give up arbitrage profits but may also incur exchange loss. What to do? They must sell assets to exchange for yen to repay debts. Bitcoin has good liquidity and trades 24 hours, so it naturally became one of the first targets to be sold off.

Some people say that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts can support the market, but this idea is too optimistic. The Fed's rate cuts can at most alleviate the pressure of dollar financing, but the tightening of the Bank of Japan is the real fundamental problem—arbitrage opportunities are disappearing, and rate cuts are merely delaying the pace.

Two key time windows are worth paying attention to: the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 10 and the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on the 19th. During this period, it is advisable to pay more attention to the exchange rate movement of the dollar against the yen and the Japanese government bond yield curve, as the signal strength of these two macro indicators far exceeds technical analysis.

When market sentiment is unstable, maintaining liquidity is more important than bottom fishing. It would be a more prudent choice to make allocations after the policy boots hit the ground and the flow of funds becomes clear. $ETH $BNB $XRP