#数字货币市场回调 【The market has been in panic for 29 consecutive days, but a turning point may be on the way】

This month has been really torturous. The panic index has been stuck at "fear" or "extreme fear" for 29 out of the 30 days. This morning, $BTC dropped another 5%, and the index is still at 23. But it is precisely during times like this that opportunities may be hidden.

Looking at the Ahr999 index, it's currently around 0.55 - this position often corresponds to medium to long-term layout windows in history. Of course, there is indeed short-term selling pressure: the possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates is making funds a bit hesitant, and the mention of financing difficulties by the CEO of a certain strategy company may lead to selling coins, making the market even more nervous.

But there are two changes that many people may not have noticed:

**The inflection point of liquidity has actually appeared**
Starting from December 1, the Federal Reserve officially ends quantitative tightening (QT). Since 2022, more than $2 trillion have been withdrawn from the market. Historical patterns show that after QT ends, risk assets often begin to recover, and cryptocurrencies are usually among the first to react.

**Funds for $ETH and $BTC ETFs have flowed back**
Last week, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs finally ended four consecutive weeks of net outflows and turned into net inflows. BlackRock even publicly stated that their Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has become one of their fastest-growing products, with a scale surpassing 70 billion dollars. Institutions are actually still positioning themselves, just not as overtly.

Looking ahead, there are still quite a few potential catalysts this month: the Federal Reserve has stopped tapering, the interest rate cut window is gradually opening, the Ethereum upgrade is progressing, and over a hundred altcoin-related ETFs are still awaiting approval.

Market sentiment and fundamentals are diverging—panic is at record levels, but the liquidity environment and institutional participation are actually improving quietly. Markets often sprout in despair; now the market has gone through sufficient consolidation, sell-offs, and sideways movements, with multiple indicators having entered historically critical ranges.

It is always darkest before dawn. Smart money often quietly enters the market during such times. Staying calm, viewing fluctuations rationally, and solidly implementing risk management and long-term planning is more important than anything else.