#数字资产市场观察 ⚠️The market is watching a ticking time bomb – the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike button.

$BTC $ETH

Traders around the world are now on edge.

Reason? Japan may really take action to raise interest rates.

As of December 2, 2025, the market is betting with real money:

Likelihood of interest rate hike this month: 80%
The possibility of interest rate hike in January next year: 90%

This is no longer a guess; it is basically a done deal.

🔥 What is a fuse?

On December 1, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda rarely issued a strong signal:

"We will weigh the pros and cons of interest rate hikes at the appropriate time and make corresponding decisions."

Just this one sentence, and the market immediately exploded. The yield on Japan's two-year government bonds soared to its highest level since 2008, the yen quickly appreciated, and risk assets came under collective pressure.

Bitcoin was not spared either, at one point on December 1st it broke through the $85,000 mark.

💣 The truly terrifying thing is not the interest rate hike itself, but this "$20 trillion landmine."

This is the old friend of the financial market - the yen carry trade.

The gameplay is simple and straightforward, but the lethality is astonishing:

Borrowing yen at almost zero cost
Exchange for US dollars or other currencies
Buy various high-yield assets globally - stocks, bonds, real estate, and of course, cryptocurrencies.

The current market consensus is:

📌 Global yen carry trade scale: 18 to 20 trillion dollars

What will happen if Japan really raises interest rates?

➡️ The cost of borrowing money has skyrocketed
➡️ Large-scale Forced Liquidation
➡️ Crazy sell-off of assets to exchange for yen

This is what the entire market is on guard against —

The "domino effect" of yen carry trades.

🌪 What impact will the crypto market face?

In recent times: market fluctuations will intensify, and large funds have already begun to adjust their positions in advance.

In the medium term: if the carry trade really collapses, all risk assets will suffer, and cryptocurrencies will not be spared.

In the long run: After the repricing of liquidity, it may instead welcome a more solid upward trend.

Based on recent on-chain data and trading volume, funds are quietly concentrating on BTC, ETH, and some fundamentally solid mainstream cryptocurrencies.