#ETH走势分析 The global financial markets are now focused on one thing — the Bank of Japan may really take action this time.

The latest market data is right in front of us: the probability of a rate hike in December has soared to 80%, and is approaching 90% in January next year. This is no longer a case of crying wolf; the wolf is really at the door.

The fuse was lit on December 1st. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda rarely released a strong signal: "We will comprehensively assess the pros and cons and adjust the policy interest rate in a timely manner." Once this statement was made, the yield on Japan's two-year government bonds surged to its highest point since 2008, the yen strengthened instantly, and global risk assets fell in response. On that day, $BTC briefly broke through the $85,000 mark, and $ETH similarly did not escape.

**The real bomb is not the interest rate hike itself**

but rather the yen carry trade with a scale of 18 to 20 trillion US dollars.

The logic of this gameplay is simple and straightforward: borrow the yen at ultra-low interest rates, exchange it for strong currencies like the US dollar, and then buy up high-yield assets globally—stocks, bonds, real estate, and of course, cryptocurrencies. For the past decade or so, this model has made money effortlessly.

But now the situation has changed. Once Japan truly raises interest rates, these funds will face a triple blow: soaring borrowing costs, forced liquidation to stop losses, and large-scale asset sales to buy back yen.

This is the scenario that the market fears the most - the chain collapse of yen carry trade.

**What does it mean for the crypto market?**

In the short term, volatility will be significantly amplified, and large whale funds have already begun to adjust their positions in advance. On-chain data from a leading exchange shows that the frequency of large transfers has increased by 40% in the past week.

The mid-term risks are more severe. If the carry trades are truly unwound, the tightening of liquidity will affect all risk assets, and the cryptocurrency market cannot remain unaffected.

However, in the long term, this liquidity repricing may instead wash away the bubbles, allowing the market to enter a healthier trend cycle. What can be observed currently is that funds are concentrating on core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, making the situation for altcoins more difficult.

**What can be done now?**

Keep an eye on the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting in December, monitor the fluctuations in the yen exchange rate, and appropriately control leverage exposure. The impact of this round of macro narrative may be more severe than most people imagine.