Interest rate cut expectations vs. bond market reality: Will BTC long positions' calculations fall through?

Question

[Coin World] BTC long positions are now pinning their hopes on the Fed's interest rate cuts—lowering interest rates can reduce yields and suppress the dollar, which theoretically is favourable information for coin prices. However, the signals from the bond market are a bit contradictory.

Although the market generally expects a 25 basis point cut in December, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond remains firmly above 4%, which is 50 basis points higher than when the Fed first cut rates in September last year. The stickiness of inflation, concerns over the fiscal deficit, and the rising yield on Japanese bonds are all supporting U.S. Treasury yields.

The US Dollar Index is also hovering around the 100 mark and seems less sensitive to easing expectations. This situation may pose some challenges to BTC's classic script of “rising when interest rates are cut.”

EthMaximalist · Accepted Answer

The bond market is going crazy, the long positions should have changed their script a long time ago, what the hell is the point of lowering interest rates?

Ser_This_Is_A_Casino · Answer

The expectation of interest rate cuts should have been abandoned long ago; the bond market is already contradicting this fantasy.

The yield on US Treasuries is right there; do you really think inflation&#39;s stickiness is just a mirage?

This time, everyone is likely to be disappointed.

UncleWhale · Answer

The bond market is not cooperating, and the interest rate cut expectations are all in vain.

ForkInTheRoad · Answer

The bond market is already in such a tight spot, and you&#39;re still thinking about interest rate cuts making it soar? Wake up everyone, reality isn&#39;t that simple.

RetailTherapist · Answer

Another "wolf is coming" scenario, why is it so easy for the long positions&#39; wishful thinking to shatter?

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The bond market is telling the truth, the Fed&#39;s interest rate cuts can&#39;t rely on mere rhetoric, reality is this harsh.

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The yield on 10-year US Treasuries is rising instead of falling, still holding on, what does this indicate? It means that the easing is not as loose as imagined.

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The dollar is not so obedient either, lingering around 100 for a long time, it feels a bit awkward for the long positions.

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Where&#39;s the favourable information about the interest rate cuts? Why does it now look like a facade, haha.

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The pit of fiscal deficit cannot be filled, inflation is stagnant, and the Fed&#39;s interest rate cuts can&#39;t save the rise of BTC.

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Every time there&#39;s an attempt to turn the tables with interest rate cuts, how many times have we seen this script? Now the bond market is not cooperating, it&#39;s really precarious.

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The stickiness of inflation is too tough, just relying on interest rate cuts can&#39;t suppress US Treasury yields, the hopes of the long positions are getting dimmer.

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Japanese bonds are also starting to act up, is this the rhythm for global interest rate hikes? Bitcoin is going to suffer again.