#数字货币市场回调 The market has been shrouded in suffocating panic for the past month—over the last 30 days, the sentiment index has remained in the "fear" or "extreme fear" range for 29 days. This morning, Bitcoin dropped another 5%, and the index is still fixed at 23. Such extreme emotions often indicate that a turning point is about to arrive.

The current Ahr999 index is hovering around 0.55. Looking at the historical data, this range often nurtures medium to long-term allocation opportunities.

The drop yesterday had two obvious triggers: concerns over capital return due to expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, along with a mention by the CEO of a leading institution that they "might consider selling $BTC" when financing is difficult, which suddenly intensified short-term selling pressure. However, this superficial information may mask more significant underlying changes.

The turning point for liquidity may have quietly emerged. The Federal Reserve will officially end its quantitative tightening policy starting December 1, which means that the over $2 trillion in liquidity withdrawn from the market since 2022 will no longer continue to shrink. Historical experience tells us that after QT ends, risk assets often gradually recover, and cryptocurrencies are usually the first to sense the change.

It is worth noting the subtle shift in capital flow. Last week, the ETFs for $BTC and $ETH finally reversed a four-week trend of net outflows, turning into net inflows. BlackRock even publicly stated that its Bitcoin ETF has become one of the fastest-growing product lines, quickly surpassing $70 billion in size. The pace of institutional positioning has not slowed down.

There are several key variables to pay attention to in December: the fact that the Federal Reserve has stopped tapering is now a reality, the interest rate cut window is gradually opening, Ethereum's technological upgrades are continuously advancing, and hundreds of altcoin-related ETFs are waiting for approval.

Market sentiment and fundamentals are forming a wonderful divergence. While panic continues to set new records, the liquidity environment and institutional participation are quietly improving amid undercurrents. After sufficient consolidation, sharp declines, and sideways movement, multiple indicators have entered historically critical ranges. Markets often sprout in despair, and smart money tends to enter quietly at such moments. Staying calm, managing risks, and making long-term plans may be the most correct posture at this time.