Don't treat this as an ordinary pullback; the fuse of the liquidity crisis has already been lit.

The calm of the weekend is just the illusion before the storm. Bitcoin remained steady above 90800 over the weekend, with retail investors waiting for next week's market trend. However, this morning the Bank of Japan suddenly played a hawkish card—news of a possible interest rate hike in December hit the market hard.

U.S. stock futures plummeted, Bitcoin fell over 3,000 points in half an hour, and the key defense line of 90,800 was instantly breached, now racing towards the life-and-death line of 85,000. The Liquidity strangulation mechanism has been activated.

What gives Japan the ability to upset the global balance with interest rate hikes? The answer lies in a thirty-year arbitrage game. Japan's long-term zero interest rates, even negative rates, effectively provide global institutions with a free ATM: borrowing cheap yen, exchanging it for dollars to invest in US stocks, buy Bitcoin, or purchase US Treasuries—who wouldn't love a business that lets you play with nothing?

But once interest rates are raised, the game rules change in an instant. The cost of borrowing skyrockets, and high-leverage players can no longer bear the pressure, starting to frantically liquidate positions and sell off assets to raise capital, causing liquidity to be instantly drained. What's even more severe is that the current market pricing indicates: the probability of a rate hike in December is over 60%, and it soars to 90% in January next year. This "yen printing machine" that has been operating for thirty years might really come to a halt.

In the short term, 85000 is the main battleground for bulls and bears. If it holds, a double bottom formation will give hope for a rebound, and reaching 90800 is not a dream; if it doesn't hold? Below is a smooth ride, there is basically no decent support before 74000, and the feeling of free fall is something that anyone who tries will know. The key variable is the liquidity feedback after the US stock market opens, so keep a close watch.

The on-chain data is even stranger. In the 24 hours before the pullback, whales holding over 100 BTC collectively sold off, dumping nearly 2000 bitcoins, marking the largest sell-off in the past two weeks. And what about retail investors and small to medium holders? They are still foolishly trying to catch the falling knife. Smart money has already started to flee.