On December 2nd midday, BTC is struggling around $86,618. The previous night's slaughter down to $83,800 is still fresh in memory, and to be honest, this rebound feels a bit hollow—technically, it couldn't be worse.

Just look at the chart to know how bad it is: all moving averages on the four-hour line have been breached, the MACD is lying below the zero axis and continues to decline, and the bears obviously have no intention of letting up. What's worse is that the range from 88,000 to 90,000 dollars is filled with trapped positions. Want to break through? Don't even think about it without volume support.

However, don't be too pessimistic. There's an interesting signal on-chain—those whales holding over 10,000 coins have been quietly increasing their positions around the $86,000 to $88,000 range recently. The RSI has also dropped to 31, which is extremely oversold. In the short term, the conditions for a technical rebound are indeed in place.

Now let's look at two directions:
If it can break through the barrier of $88,200-89,000 with volume, the bears may be forced to close their positions, which could lead to a decent Rebound.
If it can't hold the defense line of 85,000-86,000 USD, then 83,000 or even 80,000 USD might be tested.

To put it simply, $85,000-$85,500 is the line between life and death. If it breaks down with volume, it is highly likely to visit the area around $80,600-$81,500. At this position, it is more important to observe than to act impulsively.