U.S. manufacturing data is once again sluggish. Can BTC break through under the liquidation pressure at 88000?

[Block Rhythm] On December 2nd, the manufacturing data for November released from the U.S. has been doomed again - the ISM Manufacturing PMI is only 48.2, which has remained in the contraction zone for the ninth consecutive month. Originally, everyone was hoping this data would show improvement, but not only did it not pick up, it instead intensified the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. However, to be fair, the weaker the economic data, the more the market worries about whether it will really slide into recession, and this sense of anxiety is starting to spread again.

More subtly, Trump's side has been quite active, and various rumors about the new chairman of the Federal Reserve have already begun to affect market expectations. Investors are a bit confused now—should they follow the guidance of the current chairman, or bet in advance on the policy tendencies of the new chairman? This state of “dual core signals” confusion could last until the first half of next year, and the dollar and interest rate expectations are likely to go on a roller coaster.

The crypto market also had a shake last night. BTC climbed back to around 87,000 USD from its low point, but overall it is still in a weak recovery state. Now the key is whether it can break through the 88,000 hurdle—there are a large number of short liquidation orders piled up there. If it can't push through, it may very likely turn back to test the two support levels of 85,000 and even lower at 83,800.

From the liquidation heat map, current liquidity is mainly concentrated at three points: the upper short liquidation zone at 88000, and the long liquidation gathering points at 85500 and 83800. In the short term, volatility is likely to continue, and the direction of movement may very well be driven by these liquidation trigger points. If uncertainty at the policy level continues to fester, BTC is likely to bounce back and forth within this range. Looking upward, 88000 is the touchstone for a short-term breakthrough, while 85000 and 83800 are two critical defense lines that must be maintained.

To be honest, the US monetary policy is currently in a rare transition period. The “shadow chairman” effect combined with an unclear inflation path may lead the market to experience several rounds of repricing in the coming weeks. The short-term direction of BTC still depends on how the liquidation density interacts with macro sentiment. It is advisable to pay more attention to the flow of funds, changes in volatility, and the consistency of policy signals, so as to capture potential structural opportunities that may arise later.