The rumors of personnel changes at the Fed are getting stronger — the probability of Hassett taking over as chairman has surged to 74%, and this number is not without basis.

The individual who served as the chairman of the Economic Advisory Council during Trump's first term has recently been frequently signaling for "aggressive rate cuts." He advocates for lowering the federal funds rate directly from the current 3.75% to below 3%, which is much more intense than Powell's conservative approach of squeezing 25 basis points each time.

What does it mean for the crypto market? Several chain reactions need to be clarified:

**Liquidity gates may swing wide open**. Last September's 25 basis point rate cut saw Bitcoin rise 8% on the same day, clearly indicating that funds were searching for high-yield targets. If we really follow Hassett's approach, starting with a single rate cut of 50 basis points, the upward space for mainstream coins would be directly pried open. When the dollar index weakens, Bitcoin has historically acted as "digital gold"; this has been validated by the previous three rounds of rate cut cycles.

**Institutional trends have already indicated the issue**. During the days when Bitcoin broke through $120,000, on-chain data showed that institutional capital accounted for 65%, and Wall Street hedge funds were frantically building positions. They are betting that during the period of loose monetary policy, scarce assets will be repriced.

**The regulatory stablecoin sector is diverging**. The new "sandbox regulation" policy promoted by Bowman has caused stablecoins like USDC, which have reserve audits, to surge by 18%, but algorithmic stablecoins are still in a regulatory gray area. When selecting targets, one must clearly see the direction of regulation.

As for how retail investors should act, three thoughts:

The short-term traders are focused on the December FOMC meeting, with the 24-hour window before and after the interest rate cut being the most volatile period, and mainstream cryptocurrencies usually react in advance.
Long-term investors may consider gradually building positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. If Haseltine really takes office, the policy tone will at least be in place for a year.
A conservative allocation of compliant stablecoins should be made for liquidity reserves, but projects without transparent audits should be avoided.

Of course, some are also concerned that Hassert may become a "political tool." However, in his past public statements, he has emphasized both the need to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy and repeatedly mentioned that "the independence of the Fed cannot be lost." This centrist style may actually reduce extreme volatility in the market.

The current situation is: policy expectations are heating up, institutions are rushing ahead, and retail investors are still on the sidelines. This is always the case with each major cycle switch—those who act a step earlier benefit, while those who come in later take on the risk. Risks certainly exist, but the window of opportunity is there; it just depends on who can withstand the uncertainty.