Recently, there has been an increasingly loud voice in the market: the Bank of Japan may soon bid farewell to the era of negative interest rates. Don't underestimate this action; the amount of funds involved is so large that you might not be able to imagine it.

Let's start with a historical lesson. Do you remember when the Bank of Japan slightly adjusted its yield curve control policy in 2022? At that time, global risk assets experienced a collective plunge. Why? Because there were too many carry trades built on the ultra-low interest rate of the yen—borrowing cheap yen and investing in higher-yielding assets; the scale of this strategy was astronomical.

The question now is, once Japan really raises interest rates, will this capital start to flow back? If that really happens, the impact won't just be on the domestic market in Japan. The global liquidity environment will also have to change, traditional financial markets will see volatility, and the cryptocurrency side won't escape either – the emotional transmission combined with the leverage effect will bring what needs to come.

Take a look at the current market signals: the Japanese stock market and government bonds have started to become a bit unstable, Bitcoin is repeatedly testing those key support levels, and the global market volatility index is also on the rise. These signs put together make it hard for people to hold on.

However, to put it another way, real opportunities often do not arise the moment news comes out. Instead of betting on the direction at that time, it is better to wait until the market has digested the expectations and the positions that need to be closed have been mostly settled before deciding on the next move. Patience and flexibility may be the two most valuable words during this period.

You can monitor a few signals to determine whether the market has really stabilized: the bond markets of major countries should no longer experience significant fluctuations; large on-chain transfers should return to their normal frequency; and the overall leverage level should drop to a relatively safe position. Only when these conditions are met can you feel a bit more at ease.

Ultimately, the recent fluctuations are essentially a transition in the global macro liquidity cycle. Understanding how this transmission chain operates will certainly help in managing one's positions and risks.

What is the current status of your position? Are you planning to wait and see for a while, or are you already prepared to deal with significant fluctuations? Let's discuss your thoughts in the comments.