Last night, BTC crawled back to around 87,000 USD from its low point, but don't celebrate too early—this rebound seems more like a weak recovery, not a true trend reversal.

The most critical resistance level right now is at 88000, where a large number of short liquidation orders have accumulated. Can it break through? It's hard to say. If it can't push up, it will likely have to retrace to 85000. Even tougher, there are two dense long liquidation zones below at 85500 and 83800, and in the short term, it's just repeatedly harvesting between these several nodes.

The macro level is even more frustrating. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November in the U.S., released on December 2nd, is only 48.2, marking nine consecutive months of sluggish performance. The market was originally hoping for an improvement in the data, but instead of the expected rebound, concerns about a recession have resurfaced. While expectations for interest rate cuts have stabilized, the fog surrounding the economic outlook has become even thicker.

More subtly, there are undercurrents in policy — Trump is accelerating his layout, and the new Fed chair hasn't even taken office yet, the "shadow effect" has already begun to ferment. In the next six months, there may be confusion with dual core signals in monetary policy guidance, and the dollar and interest rate expectations could fluctuate dramatically at any time.

In summary: Watch if it can break through 88000, while guarding the two support lines at 85000 and 83800. Given the current intertwining of policy noise and macro data, BTC is likely to continue oscillating within this range, with direction selection largely driven by liquidations. Don’t rush to go all in; the risk hasn’t dispersed yet.