Something interesting is brewing in the relationship between yield curves and cyclical stocks.

Here's the pattern: going back to 1990, the yield curve typically signals what's coming for S&P 500 cyclical sectors—about eighteen months in advance. It's been a remarkably consistent leading indicator.

But here's where it gets intriguing. Over the past year and a half, we've watched the curve steepen during this bull run. That's a first for the current cycle. Historically, when the curve starts moving like this, cyclicals eventually follow suit.

The eighteen-month lag has held up through multiple market environments—recessions, recoveries, everything in between. Now we're in that window where, if the pattern holds, we should be seeing this translate into cyclical sector performance.

Worth watching how this plays out. The curve rarely lies, but timing markets based on any single indicator is always tricky. Still, when a relationship has been this reliable for three decades, it deserves attention.