#数字资产市场观察 A rare policy tug-of-war is unfolding within the Federal Reserve. Stephen Moore, a board member appointed by Trump, publicly supports a 50 basis point rate cut, while hawkish officials firmly oppose further easing of monetary policy. This public divergence is sending extremely confusing signals to the market — and cryptocurrency investors are already starting to pay the price.

**Data doesn't lie**

During the period of policy controversy, on-chain monitoring indicated that a giant whale opened a 10x leverage short position, with a single position size reaching $121 million. Meanwhile, in the past 24 hours, the total amount of liquidations across the network reached $985 million, with over 270,000 accounts being forcibly liquidated, among which the proportion of long positions was significantly high.

The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has fallen from a previous high to below 50%. The Trump camp continues to release signals of expectation management, suggesting "there may be two rate cuts next year," but current Chairman Powell has repeatedly stated that "further rate cuts are not an inevitable option." The repeated policy signals have left leveraged traders in a dilemma.

**The market is repricing risk**

This round of volatility essentially reflects a brutal reality: when monetary policy is caught in a political game, market liquidity expectations will fluctuate violently. Institutional investors are often able to anticipate changes in policy direction through various channels, while retail traders typically lag behind at the end of the information dissemination chain.

Once the interest rate cut cycle begins, historical data shows that risk assets generally benefit; however, if the December interest rate meeting unexpectedly maintains the status quo, it will inevitably trigger a chain reaction of tightening liquidity expectations in the short term. Although Bitcoin benefits in the long term from the logic of fiat currency overproduction, its short-term price still highly depends on the liquidity environment of the US dollar.

**Several coping suggestions**

First, significantly reduce the leverage multiple. Institutional funds are sufficient to absorb short-term fluctuations, while the capacity of ordinary accounts is not on the same scale.

Secondly, closely monitor the December interest rate meeting. The dot plot and policy statement from this meeting will directly determine the market tone for the coming months.

Third, consider allocating to anti-inflation assets. Whether it is gold or Bitcoin, they typically provide a certain hedging value when monetary policy uncertainty intensifies.

The internal struggle of the Federal Reserve essentially exposes the vulnerability of the fiat currency system under political pressure. When policy-making no longer follows pure economic logic, what investors need to do is reduce their positions and increase their cash ratios, waiting for clearer signals. Remember, the market is always there, but there is only one account.