Woke up this morning, BTC has already dropped below 83,000.

The market is conveying a number: 80%. This is the betting probability for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in December, with expectations for January skyrocketing to 90%. Sounds far away? But this matter might be just one trading day away from your wallet.

For decades, the yen has been the "ATM" for global carry trades—borrowed at near-zero cost, converted into dollars, and invested in the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency. Now Japan is tightening its net, what will those funds that rely on borrowing yen to trade cryptocurrencies do? The answer is simple: flee.

The data is already speaking. BTC has fallen over 20% this month, with a net outflow of 3.5 billion USD from ETFs in a week, and the total liquidations across the network have exceeded 400 million in a single day... This is not a technical adjustment; it is liquidity being withdrawn.

The situation is more complicated with the Federal Reserve. Powell has entered a quiet period—historically, we know that the quieter it is, the more dangerous it becomes. If Japan tightens liquidity and the U.S. does not cooperate by easing, BTC will be caught in the middle, getting hit from both sides.

Just look at BNB. The new management is shouting growth slogans, but on-chain projects are accelerating their departure, and user activity has dropped to a worrying level. But it is precisely during such times that we need to pay attention to the actions of exchanges and project parties—rescue funds may already be on the way, just not yet visible.

Do you remember Christmas in 2022? The Bank of Japan suddenly adjusted its YCC policy, and the global market crashed that day. December 19 this year is also Christmas Eve, and liquidity is already dried up, so any small disturbance could be magnified tenfold.

But stay calm. The closing of carry trades is indeed fierce, but this is a short-term impact, not the end game. After the last interest rate hike in Japan in 2024, BTC hit a new all-time high within three months. The key is not to lose your footing in panic.

Now we need to focus on two time points: the December meeting of the Bank of Japan and the update of the Federal Reserve's dot plot. Don't rush to go all in, and don't be panic-sold. Surviving is the only way to qualify for the next wave of rebound.

So the question arises - after such a drop, do you dare to enter the market?