Confirmed! The US ends quantitative easing, and the probability of a rate cut in December increases to 91%.

Remember on October 29, when Powell warned that a rate cut in December was "not a done deal," the probability of a rate cut was a pitiful 35%.

In my opinion, the end of QT and interest rate cuts mark a major turning point in the Federal Reserve's policy. It signifies a shift from prioritizing "inflation" to placing greater importance on "employment."

The employment report for September released on November 20 is somewhat disappointing: 119,000 new jobs added is far lower than the first half of the year, and the unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, the highest in nearly four years.

Once the Federal Reserve shakes off the burden of inflation, there will be an opportunity for interest rate cuts to enter the fast lane, which is also the biggest hope for 2026...