#数字资产市场观察 Interest rate cut expectations get liquidated, coin prices instead crashed?

This situation is really bizarre. Traders are betting wildly on the platform, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December soaring to 90%—almost a certainty. Logically, this should be good for the crypto market, right? Instead, Bitcoin plummeted 8% this morning, crashing straight down to the $84,000 level.

What exactly is the market playing at?

Elon Musk has jumped out again, this time defining Bitcoin as a "currency based on energy". His logic is that you can't create Bitcoin out of thin air like printing money; it has to be mined with real electricity. Sounds pretty hardcore.

But on the other hand, analyst Willy Woo directly poured cold water on it: Don't be naive, printing money does not equal rising coin prices. His model shows that capital inflows are slowing down, implying that this round may have already peaked.

Even more explosive news is yet to come: Trump is basically certain to replace the head of the Federal Reserve. His staunch economic advisor Kevin Hassett will take over from Powell, who will step down in May next year—this guy has certainly spent a lot of time this year criticizing the Federal Reserve with Trump for being "too slow to cut rates."

Institutions have not been idle either. Grayscale released a report questioning the "four-year cycle" theory, arguing that this bull market is driven by institutional funds, and that $BTC could reach new highs next year. Executives at BlackRock are already envisioning a future of "tokenization of everything," claiming that the speed will be as rapid as the internet's proliferation in its early days.

In short: expectations and reality are at odds, the big players each have their own opinions, and the central bank may undergo significant changes. After the short-term bloodbath, how will the long-term play out? What do you think?