Traders have gone completely crazy!

The latest data from the prediction market Polymarket is making people restless—betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December has shot up to 90%. In other words, nine out of ten people are betting that Powell will back down this time. The remaining 10%? Probably just stubborn.

Interestingly, Bitcoin didn't rally. This morning, it took a direct hit of 8%, crashing the price to the $84,000 range. This script doesn't make sense, isn't lowering interest rates a good thing? Why did the coin price collapse first?

Let's see how the big shots are tearing it apart:

Elon Musk jumped out again to endorse Bitcoin, saying that its essence is "energy-based currency," unlike fiat money which can be printed infinitely, and that is the real value support. Sounds really exciting.

But on-chain analyst Willy Woo immediately poured cold water on it: Don't be naive, M2 growth does not equal price increase. He presented his model warning that Bitcoin has likely peaked, and capital inflow is clearly slowing down. That’s a harsh statement.

More explosive news is coming — Trump has basically locked in his choice for the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. It is rumored that he will appoint his staunch economic advisor Kevin Hassett to replace Powell, whose term expires next May. Hassett has often followed Trump this year in criticizing the Federal Reserve for "cutting rates too slowly." If he really comes to power, the central bank's approach may change dramatically.

The institutions over there haven't been quiet either:

Grayscale's report directly challenges the "four-year cycle theory," stating that this bull market is driven by ETPs and institutional funds, completely different from the previous logic dominated by retail investors. They believe that the recent pullback is normal, and Bitcoin could reach new highs next year, especially since the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates once more in December.

Two executives from BlackRock are already envisioning the future—tokenization will reshape financial markets just like the internet did, and in the future, all assets can be managed in digital wallets. The landscape will directly shift to the next era.

In simple terms:
The market is wildly betting on interest rate cuts, but the cryptocurrency prices have already plummeted. Both bulls and bears are arguing incessantly, while Trump is preparing to give the Federal Reserve a change of perspective. Institutions are debating cycle theory on one hand while already focusing on the new frontier of "tokenization of everything" on the other.

This volatility is just getting started.