The biggest lie being told in crypto macro right now is the lazy "stablecoin dry powder" narrative.

The consensus view: "Stablecoin supply is up $57B in 6 months. That’s dry powder waiting to buy BTC. Bullish."

To understand why this is flawed, you first need to define terms: Stablecoins are the primary proxy for on-chain liquidity. They represent deployable capital sitting on the sidelines.

The consensus view is first-level thinking. If you look at the actual plumbing, the data tells a different, more crucial story about market structure at the recent highs.

I analyzed the exact timing of these liquidity flows over the last 180 days.

Here is the REAL Alpha:

Bitcoin price peaked on October 7th.
Stablecoin supply didn't peak until October 25th.

Think about that lag. The heaviest wave of liquidity arrived nearly three weeks after the top was in.

What it actually means:

That late-stage liquidity wasn't driving a new leg up. It was likely being used as distribution liquidity by sophisticated players rotating out of risk assets near the highs. They sold into that final wave of retail inflows.

The subsequent $3B contraction in stablecoin supply since late October isn't just noise; it suggests that specific distribution phase has played out. That late-arriving capital was absorbed.

Don't just cheer for the "money printer" going brrr. Watch when it prints, and who is selling into it.