The long-awaited interest rate cut cycle is finally here. But this time it might be completely different from what you expected.

The latest outlook report released by the OECD has clearly outlined the rules of the game for the next two years: the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates until the end of 2026, with the target rate range falling between 3.25% and 3.5%. At first glance, it sounds like the signal for liquidity to return has been sounded. However, upon closer examination, you will realize that this is not a case of boiling frogs in warm water, but rather a "thorny rate cut" entangled by the trade war and fiscal risks.

Why do you say that?

Because behind the expectation of interest rate cuts, there are two hidden time bombs.

**The first point: Tariff increases are distorting economic logic.**

The United States' tariff policies are becoming increasingly aggressive, slowing down global trade flow and forcing domestic prices to rise. The cost of imported goods has surged, consumers are tightening their wallets, and inflation remains stubbornly high like chewing gum. The Federal Reserve is in a dilemma: if they cut interest rates, they fear inflation will rebound; if they don't cut, the economy won't be able to hold up. Therefore, this time, the rate cut will be slow, and the intensity will not be as decisive as in the past.

**The second one: The finances are about to collapse.**

A statement in the OECD report is quite heavy - the current fiscal path of the United States "is not sustainable." In other words, the model of maintaining prosperity through borrowing has come to an end. The ability to cut interest rates is limited, and finances are about to reach their breaking point. The underlying currents at the macro level are more turbulent than you might imagine. At this time, if one blindly bets on a full-blown bull market, they are likely to be washed up on the shore.

---

**For the cryptocurrency market, this is a typical case of "ice and fire":**

**The Side of Fire:**
The general direction of interest rate cuts has not changed, and the expectation of long-term liquidity easing remains the underlying support for Bitcoin and highly liquid altcoins. Money will eventually come; it just takes longer.

**The Ice Side:**
Tariffs drag down growth, and fiscal risks undermine confidence. If traditional markets enter a period of turbulence or short-term correction, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market will only be magnified, and it cannot remain unaffected.

---

**How should retail investors survive in this kind of pattern?**

**Strategy 1: Don't think about going all in.**
Split the funds into three to five portions and wait for the market to pull back before gradually building positions. Lowering interest rates is not a sprint, but a marathon.

**Strategy 2: Choose targets with "dual-driven" potential.**
A cryptocurrency that can benefit from macro liquidity dividends while also being supported by its own narrative. For example, AI concept tokens, tokenized assets (RWA), and on-chain yield DeFi ecosystems—these sectors do not rely solely on the overall market.

**Strategy Three: Risk Control Always Comes First.**
Control your position well, and you won't be shaken out by volatility. The market in the next year and a half is destined to have structural opportunities amidst the fluctuations. Only those who survive until the end can reap the big rewards.

---

The market is brewing, but it's not the time to charge recklessly. Follow the rhythm, and you won't go off track.