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The assumption of a rally into FOMC

Last night, after the lowest retracement to the second potential pullback level of around 84500 that I posted in my TG channel (lowest 83800), there was no further decline.

After rebounding to the 87 range, I believe the upper resistance is around 88. If it breaks through here, it can continue to rise; if 88 is blocked, it will pull back to the 81700 range.

Currently, it has broken through the 88000 level in a small-scale driving form.

After breaking through 88, I believe the next resistance is in the 91200 range, and we are currently very close again.

In the views from yesterday and the day before, it was believed that after this second test ends (even if it breaks below the previous resistance and recovers), the market should Rally into the FOMC, meaning it will rise continuously for several days leading up to the FOMC.

Tonight's rise increases the possibility of a double probe ending and a rally into the FOMC assumption.

After breaking through 91200, the next challenge is the upper resistance zone of 94 mentioned earlier. If it breaks through 94, the next resistance will be at 100,000 (this was all drawn a few days ago).

Therefore, if we maintain the assumption of Rally into FOMC, it is possible to rise to 94000 and 100000 before the FOMC.

The most feasible bullish scenario at the moment is to rise to the 100,000 range before the FOMC. After the FOMC, there will be a mild correction, and then it will reach 112,000 in mid to late December.

If it quickly rises to 112000 before the FOMC (although the likelihood seems very low at the moment), I will not hesitate to liquidate.

The news brought by the FOMC itself is still an unknown factor. After interest rate cuts are fully priced in, the focus will shift to next year's dot plot. Currently, there are significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, so whether the dot plot will be a bullish or bearish signal remains uncertain. Therefore, we cannot bet on the FOMC delivering more good news; we can only trade based on the current expectations of interest rate cuts.

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