CME data: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 87.2%.

GasWrangler

2025-12-02 16:58:18

According to the latest data from CME, the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy in December have become quite clear.

A 25 basis point rate cut? The probability is as high as 87.2%. In other words, almost nine out of ten traders are betting on a cut.

As for the possibility of maintaining the status quo, there is only a 12.8% chance left—basically a low probability event.

This one-sided expectation reflects, to some extent, the market's judgment of the current economic environment.

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4am_degen

· 9h ago

87.2% probability, the market has already made up its mind --- Is there still one trader among the nine who is betting on no decrease? I just want to see how this guy explains it --- With such a one-sided situation, I'm a bit worried... market Consensus is often the most dangerous --- Interest rate cuts are a done deal, the question is what happens after the cut? --- 12.8% probability... is this the opportunity for suckers to turn things around? Haha

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