#数字货币市场回调 Is this pullback really just a quick rebound?

Recent market data has revealed some unusual signals. The overall long-short ratio appears to be 50-50 (50.5% to 49.5%), but if you look at places like dYdX and Bitmex where seasoned traders gather, the long position ratio shoots up to around 60%. What does this divergence mean? Experienced players have quietly taken their positions.

Even more magical is the liquidation data—over the past hour, short positions have liquidated $3.57 million, which is 17 times that of long positions. Each time shorts are forcefully liquidated, the orders that are forced to buy to close will turn into a boost for raising prices. Once this "stampede-style" increase is initiated, it is often more fierce than a normal rally.

The capital market is also speaking: in the past 24 hours, spot and contract funds have continued to flow in, with trading volume reaching 3.788 billion USD. FOMO sentiment has started to spread, and retail investors are gradually entering the market.

However, it must be admitted that the technical indicators are indeed a bit stretched. The RSI has surged to 89.67, which, according to textbook definitions, is severely overbought. But the problem is—during a short squeeze market, indicator dullness is the norm. Sometimes the inertia of the trend is more important than the numerical values.

If you want to layout, you can consider these key positions:
A pullback to the $137 range can be used to gradually accumulate long positions (don't put all your main position in at once).
Breakout on increased volume above the previous high of $141.5, then follow up with light positions.
The stop loss must be set below $128.5 (if it breaks, the trend will change).
Look up to $145 or even $150, but don't be greedy.

Remember, trading is always a game of probabilities. Even the most beautiful data can be shattered by a black swan; controlling your position is more important than making accurate predictions.