#DecemberMarketOutlook Crypto analyst Joao Wedson stated that by evaluating the current outlook of Bitcoin through on-chain data, the market is at a critical juncture.

Wedson argued that on-chain analysis is one of the strongest tools in the crypto market and allows for real-time visibility into the underlying structure of the price. According to the analyst, this data provides deep insights beyond price movements, especially as it reflects the behavior of long-term investors.
The most important indicator highlighted by Wedson is the CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) Channel. This metric reveals the most critical dynamic support and resistance areas in Bitcoin and is entirely based on real investor behavior. According to the analyst, the CVDD Channel is one of the clearest directional indicators in the market, as it is based on concrete data that focuses specifically on the movements of old coins rather than predictions or sentiment.
The analyst stated that the level at which Bitcoin is today corresponds to the same on-chain support as the momentum loss zone where the price tried to hold around 29–30 thousand dollars in May 2022. At that time, BTC could not maintain this level and subsequently experienced a much sharper decline. Wedson noted that this similarity means the current price area is a zone that should be "carefully monitored."
According to Wedson, the region that the market must currently defend is at the level of $88,000. It is critically important for Bitcoin to remain above this level to invalidate a deeper decline scenario. However, as long as the price remains below this level, especially Long-Term Investors have the potential to create selling pressure. Due to the sensitivity of the CVDD indicator to the movement of very old coins, it is stated that there could be rapid deteriorations in the indicator if this group of investors decides to sell.
If BTC fails to stay above the 88,000 dollar level, the natural target areas indicated by the CVDD Channel are highlighted as 76,800 dollars and, in a more pressing scenario, 71,250 dollars. Wedson argues that these levels have historically been "points where the market re-evaluates after capitulation" and that the majority of bottom formations in past cycles have occurred in these regions.
Wedson also claimed that CVDD is the most accurate indicator for identifying the bottom in each cycle of Bitcoin. The current bottom value of the indicator is at the level of 47,450 dollars, and this value continues to be updated daily. The analyst concluded his evaluation by stating that the main question in the current cycle is whether this bottom level will also work as the final bottom in a possible bear market in 2026.
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