Start of December: What's the Market Betting on Behind Bitcoin's Rebound?

[Crypto World] Although the start of December was a bit bumpy, it seems the market machine hasn’t stalled yet.

Bitcoin has recently climbed back up from its drop, and the US tech sector also performed well on Tuesday, managing to recover from the previous day’s pullback—which had interrupted a five-day winning streak. This rebound at least shows one thing: investors haven’t been scared off; they just took a breather.

What’s even more interesting are some other signals. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the market is now almost certain that the December 10 meeting will result in a 25 basis point rate cut, with the probability as high as 89.2%. A month ago? That number was hovering around 50%, basically a coin toss.

Doug Beath, a global equity strategist at Wells Fargo, made an interesting comment: “As long as there are no surprises, the market is refocusing on fundamentals.” He’s observed that people are starting to pay attention to Q4 and 2026 earnings data that are better than expected, even skipping over the current period of economic weakness and looking ahead to a potential growth acceleration in the second half of next year.

If we have to pick a keyword for the year-end market, “cautious optimism” might fit best. There’s always market noise, but this time investors seem more willing to trust data and expectations rather than being led by short-term fluctuations.