#加密市场回调 There are renewed rumors of a Fed rate cut, and market sentiment is starting to get restless. The recent trends of $BTC and $ETH are quite intriguing.

First, let’s talk about the bigger picture—over the next two weeks, the US stock market may face triple pressure, and this timing coincides with a seasonally weak period, so liquidity isn’t looking optimistic. Although various sources of capital are bullish, treating a rate cut as a major positive, I have to remind you: when the market can see the news, it’s usually already priced in.

You know how data works—a slight adjustment can cause wild market swings. Retail investors, make your own judgments.

Back to trading itself. On Tuesday, my short positions on BTC and ETH got stopped out—I won’t shy away from this. I don’t brag when I’m right, nor do I hide when I’m wrong—there are no gods in the market, and certainly no perpetual winners. Admitting mistakes is the first lesson for survival.

From a technical perspective, the short-term trend is indeed bullish. But if you look closely, there are issues: trading volume keeps shrinking, a bearish evening star has appeared on the candlestick chart, and RSI is already in the overbought zone. All these signals suggest that upward momentum is actually running out.

Although short-term moving averages are in bullish alignment and a golden cross has appeared, the divergence between price and volume is too obvious, and this kind of rally lacks sustainable support. The pressure for a pullback could materialize at any time.

Specific trading ideas: For BTC, watch the 94,500-95,000 area for short opportunities; if it breaks through 96,500, consider re-entering, with targets at 92,800-91,000. If the downtrend continues, further watch 90,000-89,000. For ETH, you can try shorting at 3,150-3,180, with short-term support at 3,050-2,980. If it effectively breaks below, look to the 2,900 level. Set stop-losses flexibly according to your own position sizes.

The market changes in an instant—manage your risk and wish you all successful trading. $BTC $ETH