The four-year cycle of Bitcoin, to put it mystically, seems like destiny; to put it plainly, it’s more like a repeatedly reinforced pattern. But the louder people shout about it, the more it shows that it's not an ironclad law. The market is alive—liquidity, policy, institutional behavior, and global risk appetite—if just one variable slips out of control, the cycle can be broken.

I'm increasingly convinced that this cycle is more like a placebo for retail investors, telling you, "Just wait, it'll naturally go up." But the reality is the player structure has changed, with institutions taking up a larger share, and they don’t play by the textbook. They have their own capital pressures, position battles, and annual evaluations. Once there’s a crack in the consensus, the four-year cycle could come early or be delayed.

That’s why I never treat the cycle as a compass; it’s just a summary of history. When it’s time to play, what matters are emotions, liquidity, and your own judgment. Those who are fixated on the past are the most likely to miss the present.