At 3 a.m., my phone screen suddenly lit up. I opened my eyes to see that BTC had dropped by nearly $20,000 again. The group chat exploded—some were shouting that the bull market was over, others were asking whether they should cut their losses and exit, and even friends who usually don’t care about crypto were asking: Is this about to collapse?

Don’t panic. After watching the markets for so many years, I’ve seen my fair share of “bloodbaths.” This downturn looks fierce, but if you calmly break it down, you’ll see it’s more like a “well-telegraphed correction.” The problem doesn’t lie with the coin itself, but rather with external capital flows running into trouble.

Put simply, the market is out of money.

Recently, the U.S. Treasury dumped over $160 billion in bonds—essentially turning on a giant vacuum in the global financial system, sucking up money that would otherwise flow between various assets. At the same time, the Fed signaled it doesn’t plan to cut rates anytime soon. The market had been hoping for some “liquidity easing” to keep things afloat, but that hope is now gone.

The crypto market has always been a playground for high-risk capital. When liquidity tightens, these assets are the first to be dumped. But think about it—has Bitcoin’s fundamental logic changed? Institutions haven’t exited, on-chain data hasn’t collapsed, and the halving cycle expectations are still there. This drop looks more like a short-term chain reaction from capital fleeing, not some fatal bearish event.

Panic, more often than not, is just because we can’t see the truth clearly.