At 21:15 tonight, the US November ADP employment data will be released, and this time its importance may be higher than ever.

Next week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, but here's the problem—the official nonfarm payroll and CPI data won't be available in time, meaning the market loses its two core reference points. At this critical juncture with an information gap, ADP has almost become the only clue to gauge the state of the job market.

My view is that ADP will be heavily magnified this time. It's not that it's particularly accurate (it's never been the most reliable employment indicator), but when key data are collectively absent, any small movement will be scrutinized by the market under a magnifying glass.

The Federal Reserve probably won't actually base its decision solely on ADP, but the market doesn't care about that—traders will price in expectations ahead of time, and sentiment will fluctuate in advance. So, rather than being a policy signal, tonight's number is more like fuel for short-term trading sentiment.

The data itself may not be significant, but the market's reaction is what truly deserves attention.