Tonight's 21:15 ADP employment data would normally just be a reference indicator, but this time it's different—during this window when both the Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI haven't been released yet, this data is basically the only directional indicator the market can grab onto.

Currently, expectations for a rate cut in December are already very high, but whether the Fed will actually take action largely depends on whether the job market is showing enough pressure. Tonight's data, to some extent, will provide the answer.

If the data comes in weak, the market will immediately associate it with a cooling job market, giving the Fed reason to accelerate its easing pace. If rate cut expectations heat up, liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto and gold will most likely see a quick surge.

On the other hand, if the data is strong, the market will feel that the job market is still holding up, and the Fed won't be in a rush to act. If rate cut expectations cool down, high-priced assets may face downward pressure.

In short, tonight is a turning point. The market may not spike violently, but volatility is inevitable.

For those holding positions, remember to manage your risk exposure. For those on the sidelines, closely watch the strength of the first K-line after 21:15 before deciding whether to follow the move.