Last night, Bitcoin suddenly plunged in the early hours, and the drop caught many people off guard. A flood of messages came into the backend: What exactly happened this time?

In reality, the market never crashes for no reason. You can’t figure things out just by staring at candlestick charts—you have to look at where the money is flowing.

This time, the trigger point was U.S. Treasuries. With a U.S. government shutdown imminent and the Treasury’s TGA account balance running dry, the market was already short on liquidity. At this moment, the Treasury announced a $163 billion auction plan—essentially draining liquidity directly from the market. A large amount of capital flowed into the bond market for safety, so naturally, risk assets like crypto suffered losses and declined.

What you saw was the plunge in crypto prices, but at its core, it was collective liquidity exiting the market. On top of that, the Fed sent out a cold signal—Goolsbee’s hawkish remarks dashed market expectations for a December rate cut. Funds that were waiting for the stimulus of a rate cut lost their direction; those who needed to exit did so, those who needed to cut losses did so, and Bitcoin bore the brunt.

But this isn’t the end of the world—it’s just the market shifting gears. Liquidity is like the tide: when it recedes quickly, it comes back with just as much force. Once the government resumes operations, the TGA account is replenished, and reverse repos are loosened, the liquidity that was pulled out will eventually flow back in.

After eight years of trading, I’ve seen this cycle play out too many times. It’s always the same script: people panic sell, curse the market manipulators, but they’re all making the same mistake—only watching the price, not the underlying logic.

Short-term pain isn’t a bad thing; it’s a washout of weak hands. Those who understand how to read liquidity can position themselves early amid the chaos. Dips are opportunities for rotation, panic is a signal of sentiment. When others are selling, I watch the rhythm; when others are retreating, I look for direction—that’s my trading logic. I don’t gamble on sudden surges or crashes; I just follow the flow of capital.

As soon as there’s a signal of capital returning, the window for positioning will open. I’ve been on the path of compounding returns for eight years now. You can go fast alone, but I’d rather take everyone farther together.