#BTC & #Crypto Cycle – The Real Debate:

Everyone in this market is entitled to their own opinion and market outlook.

🏳️1 Fractal Bias is Super Dangerous:
There is a one guy who keeps on pushing the narrative that this cycle will simply copy-paste 2021, driven by fractal overlays that ignore macro shifts. When this analyst rely only on one model, especially to justify selling 50% of their holdings, it raises a key question:

🏳️If you are truly convinced a bear market is here, why not derisk 80%+ instead of only half?

🏳️Because 50% hedging actually communicates uncertainty:
▫️You don’t fully trust your bearish thesis
▫️You want downside protection but don’t want to miss upside continuation. You are not convinced of your thesis.
▫️In both cases, the direction is still unclear to you and misleading your audience.

🏳️Markets are not driven by fractals alone. This cycle is shaped by:
• New liquidity sources
• ETF-driven demand
• Institutional participation
• GOLD capital rotation into risk-on-assets
• Expansion of crypto infrastructure
• Delayed macro cycle impacts vs previous cycles

🏳️Completely ignoring these factors risks leading people into avoidable ending, just like extreme bearish predictions did in past cycles.

🏳️How I See It:
▫️If you believe in the 4-Year Cycle only, then you should already be heavily derisked by now.
▫️If you believe in the extended macro liquidity cycle, then you understand:
• Pullbacks do not define a bear market
• Exhaustion candles precede the real blow-off top
• The final leg is always the most aggressive

🏳️For #XRP specifically:
If we revisit $2.65 – $2.70 without major momentum expansion, and as March 2026 approaches, strategic derisking becomes a smart optional move, not fear, but optimization.

🏳️My Thesis:
▫️The cycle top timing will not be a copy of 2021.
▫️It will be a curveball.
▫️My target window remains:
▫️November 2026, the true macro cycle peak. November 2026 Mid-term Elections should be hot an Trump knows how to make people Happy.

🏳️Only a small percentage of the market will see it before it happens.
🏳️Bottom Line
▫️Bias is dangerous.
▫️Fractals alone are incomplete.
▫️Macro + Liquidity + Structure = The full roadmap.

Focus on the bigger picture. This cycle is far from finished.