It's time to short $ETH

Regulation combined with continuous sell-offs by the ETH Foundation
All the good news is out!!!

According to the latest market data, Ethereum (ETH) as of December 5th:

· Latest price and intraday performance: around 3,156 USDT, down about 1.8% in 24 hours. Earlier today, it briefly fell below 3,100 USDT, but in the previous trading day (December 4th), it surged above 3,200 USDT at its highest.
· Key technical levels:
· Short-term key level: Around 3,150 USDT is seen by analysts as a critical line between bulls and bears.
· Upper resistance: Significant selling pressure exists in the 3,200 to 3,400 USDT range.
· Lower support: If 3,150 USDT is breached, the next support is in the 3,050-3,100 USDT area, with deeper support near 2,900 USDT.
· Market capital flows: US spot Ethereum ETF funds saw significant net outflows in mid-to-late November, totaling over $1.2 billion. Although there has been a slight inflow recently, overall institutional sentiment remains cautious.
· Major macro impact: Market expectations of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan have been a major factor causing overall volatility in the crypto market and leveraged position liquidations.

Multi-dimensional market analysis

Ethereum's current trend is influenced by a combination of technical, capital, and macro factors:

1. Technical: Contending for key levels
The battle around 3,150 USDT will determine the short-term direction. If it holds above this level, it may attempt to test the 3,200-3,300 USDT resistance area again; if it fails, it could further pull back to lower support.
2. Capital: Institutions turning cautious
The large-scale net outflows from Ethereum ETFs in November indicate that some major investors chose to take profits or reduce risk exposure during the price correction. This has somewhat suppressed the momentum for price rebounds.
3. Macro: External liquidity shock
Rate hike signals from the Bank of Japan have affected global carry trades funded by the yen, leading to deleveraging and sell-offs in high-risk assets including cryptocurrencies. This is a key external reason for the recent increase in market volatility.

Outlook and key points to watch

In summary, Ethereum may continue to fluctuate in the short term. The market's focus has shifted from pure speculation to verifying actual support (such as ETF inflows and network activity) and changes in macro liquidity.

· Price: Whether it can effectively break through and hold above 3,200 USDT, or if it will fall below the 3,050 USDT support.
· Capital: Whether US spot Ethereum ETF fund flows can shift from net outflows to stable net inflows.
· Macro: The final interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan, and its subsequent impact on global market risk appetite.
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